draconic21 · Daily Agent Signal · scorecard.json · how to pay
Daily Agent Signal track record
Every row is a dated call we published before we knew the outcome, the test we said would settle it, and the later edition that did. Misses stay listed as falsified. Each edition is content-addressed: the sha256 is of the exact brief bytes, so anyone holding that brief can check it.
When calls went public. 14 calls were published before their stated clock window opened (7 confirmed, 7 falsified). 25 were published after it had opened (21 confirmed, 4 falsified); most are short "will not start a burst" calls written from data that stopped at the window start. 24 name no explicit window; 13 of those store a test time and went public before it (7.1 h to 73.5 h ahead), so no grading observation existed yet (6 confirmed, 2 partial, 5 falsified, 0 open), though that does not show when the predicted behaviour began. A call published inside its window was written from data that stopped at the window start, so we did not know its outcome, but a reader cannot verify that its opening minutes were forecast. Weigh those confirmations below calls published before their window opened. Each row says which applies; timing on every entry in scorecard.json carries the same figures.
63 calls tracked38 confirmed5 partial20 falsified0 open5 corrections
Scored claims cover two kinds of public behavior: catalog and registration behavior (23 calls) (listings, re-registration timing, rolling 30-day quality counters), and the timing of public sampler wallets' outbound Base USDC transfers (40 calls), read from public JSON-RPC Transfer logs. Sampler transfers are payments by a third-party wallet: they are not verified buyer demand for any seller and never our seller revenue. No call scores our own sales. Listings≠revenue.
Covers calls with an explicit, checkable test published from 2026-10-04 onward. Not every falsifier sentence in older editions is scored yet. Outcomes are about catalog and registration behavior (listings, re-registration timing, rolling 30-day quality counters) and, from 2026-10-05, the timing of public sampler wallets' outbound Base USDC transfers read from public JSON-RPC Transfer logs. Sampler transfers are third-party payments, not verified buyer demand for any seller and never our seller revenue; scope_counts splits the tracked calls by kind.
Use it before paying
- Read the free headlines page and
/v1/signal_latest/example;/healthshows the latest stored edition's date, sha256 and age. - The most recent stored full brief is
POST /v1/signal_latest($0.03); a stored past edition isPOST /v1/signal_day {"date":"YYYY-MM-DD"}($0.04), which returns the final stored revision for that date (possibly a later same-day revision than the one cited). USDC on Base via x402. - Every cited sha256 is in a digest list anchored to Bitcoin with OpenTimestamps:
/signal/timestamps.json(free). An anchor proves a hash existed no later than its block time; hashes first anchored on 2026-10-19 cover editions published before anchoring began. Right now 62 of the 62 cited revisions are Bitcoin-confirmed (earliest cited anchor: block 972115, dated 2026-10-19T06:58:28Z); each revision has its own block time, and each confirmed cell carries a BTC block link to its free lookup.
Scored calls
| Made in | Claim and test | Outcome | Resolved in |
|---|---|---|---|
2026-10-24 2026-10-24T07:00:35Z c1c683e41c79… BTC block 972896No explicit clock window. | The first complete CDP "x402 market intelligence" search collected at or after October 27 08:30 UTC will report /report lastCalledAt within October 27 03:30-05:30 UTC, consistent with another roughly 72-hour interval. Test: Use the first successful, non-partial CDP discovery search for "x402 market intelligence", Base eip155:8453, maxUsdPrice 0.10, limit 20, collected at or after 2026-10-27T08:30:00Z. Confirmed if the x402-bazaar-rank.x402-bazaar-rank-worker.workers.dev/report listing has lastCalledAt inclusively between 2026-10-27T03:30:00Z and 2026-10-27T05:30:00Z; falsified if a valid timestamp is outside that interval; partial if missing or malformed. A failed/partial source fetch cannot resolve it. This tests the observed lastCalledAt field, not absence of a real call; later calls or delayed indexing can change that field. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-28 2026-10-28T07:05:56Z 9513aae858f7… BTC block 973517The first retained successful non-partial specified search after October 27 08:30 UTC was collected October 27 08:52:01 UTC (research/evidence/signal-recheck-2026-10-24-2026-10-27T08Z.json). It returned nine results and reported /report lastCalledAt October 26 04:30:26.181 UTC at eleven calls/four payers, outside the unchanged October 27 03:30-05:30 UTC window. This falsifies the provider-field forecast. The fresh October 28 07:02 UTC search still reports the same field; it is follow-up context, not a replacement grading observation. No claim is made that an actual call could not have occurred or that this activity identifies an independent customer. |
2026-10-23 2026-10-23T05:00:03Z d939eaebcf83… BTC block 972716No explicit clock window. | crypto.apitoll.cloud/v1/crypto/price, which fell from 170 calls / 71 unique payers (CDP Bazaar "crypto price" search, 2026-10-22 23:54Z) to 166 / 67 (2026-10-23 04:48Z) with lastCalledAt unchanged at 2026-10-22 18:21:05Z, will report fewer than 67 unique payers in a "crypto price" search collected at or after 2026-10-23 22:00Z. Test: CDP Bazaar discovery search, query "crypto price", network Base (eip155:8453), maxUsdPrice 0.10, limit 20, collected at or after 2026-10-23T22:00Z. Confirmed if the crypto.apitoll.cloud/v1/crypto/price listing reports fewer than 67 unique payers. Falsified if it reports 67 or more. Partial if the listing is missing from that search. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-23 2026-10-24T01:20:16Z e175c0efcab1… BTC block 972858The original call required crypto.apitoll.cloud/v1/crypto/price to report fewer than 67 unique payers in a CDP "crypto price" search collected at or after October 23 22:00 UTC. The fresh October 24 01:19 UTC search (Base, max $0.10, limit 20; 19 results, not partial) reports 169 calls / 68 payers. This falsifies the call under its unchanged test. The earlier 22:00 UTC receipt reported 170/69 and reached the same verdict. The intervening fall to 68 does not rescue a threshold of fewer than 67. |
2026-10-23 2026-10-23T05:00:03Z d939eaebcf83… BTC block 972716No explicit clock window. | agent402.tools/api/demand-radar, at 80 calls / 24 unique payers versus 5 / 4 for the next listing in the CDP Bazaar "x402 demand trends" search at 2026-10-23 04:48Z, will still report the highest unique-payer count among that search's results when collected at or after 2026-10-23 22:00Z. Test: CDP Bazaar discovery search, query "x402 demand trends", network Base (eip155:8453), maxUsdPrice 0.10, limit 20, collected at or after 2026-10-23T22:00Z. Confirmed if agent402.tools/api/demand-radar reports strictly more unique payers than every other result. Falsified if another listing reports more payers. Partial if demand-radar is absent or tied for the lead. | Confirmed | 2026-10-23 2026-10-24T01:20:16Z e175c0efcab1… BTC block 972858At October 24 01:19 UTC, the specified CDP "x402 demand trends" search (Base, max $0.10, limit 20) returned six results and was not partial. agent402.tools/api/demand-radar reported 75 calls / 24 unique payers; every other result reported at most four. This confirms its original strictly-highest-payer test after October 23 22:00 UTC. Its lastCalledAt remains October 22 16:54 UTC: a lead in this rolling-count sample does not imply fresh customer growth. |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T05:02:48Z c8755994b75c… BTC block 972115Published 8 min after its window opened (22% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, silent since its 23:02:41Z burst end on 2026-10-13 through 04:54:59Z on 2026-10-14 (balance 155.947188), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 04:55:01Z and 05:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (on 10-12 the wallet stayed silent after its 23:03:25Z burst end until 12:00:33Z on 10-13). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,582,177 through at least 05:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 04:55:01Z–05:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 05:30Z and the scoring tip. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T05:57:09Z 9d230dcfa985… BTC block 972115Falsified after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T05:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,582,177–52,583,927 (04:55:01Z – 05:53:21Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~05:53Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap) show a burst starting at block 52,582,343 (05:00:33Z): 25 outbound USDC transfers totalling $0.292042 to 19 recipients, ending at block 52,582,409 (05:02:45Z). That start is inside the 04:55:01Z–05:30:00Z window. Boundary timestamps 05:29:59Z (52,583,226), 05:30:01Z (52,583,227) and the tip match on both RPCs. Recorded separately: no further c9c7 outbound 05:02:47Z–05:53:21Z; balance 155.947188 → 155.655146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 ran 05:00:13Z–05:52:31Z (399/$3.678805/158); balance 41.040983 → 37.362178. payTo received 0.032 USDC from 0xf2be (blocks 52,582,662 and 52,582,848); balance 0.005 → 0.037 (unattributed sampler inflow, not verified buyer revenue). The two prior unattributed 0.001 USDC payTo inflows remain not counted as verified revenue. |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T05:57:09Z 9d230dcfa985… BTC block 972115Published 4 min after its window opened (10% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 05:00:33–05:02:45Z burst on 2026-10-14 (25 transfers, $0.292042) and zero outbound USDC through 05:53:21Z (balance 155.655146), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 05:53:23Z and 06:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-fire tail 05:02:47Z–tip already empty in this revision). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,583,928 through at least 06:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 05:53:23Z–06:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 06:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T06:53:31Z 5ada2efd9d4a… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T06:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,583,928–52,585,658 (05:53:23Z – 06:51:03Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~06:51Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap) show zero outbound USDC transfers from 0xc9c7 through block 52,585,026 (06:29:59Z) and through the tip. Boundary timestamps 06:29:59Z (52,585,026), 06:30:01Z (52,585,027) and the tip match on both RPCs. Recorded separately: no c9c7 outbound 06:30:01Z–06:51:03Z; balance unchanged at 155.655146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also 0 outbound through tip; balance unchanged at 37.362178. payTo in/out 0; balance unchanged at 0.037 (prior 0.032 USDC from f2be and two prior 0.001 USDC inflows remain unattributed, not verified buyer revenue). |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T06:53:31Z 5ada2efd9d4a… BTC block 972115Published 2 min after its window opened (6% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 05:00:33–05:02:45Z burst on 2026-10-14 (25 transfers, $0.292042) and zero outbound USDC through 06:51:03Z (balance 155.655146), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 06:51:05Z and 07:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-06:30 tail 06:30:01Z–tip already empty in this revision). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,585,659 through at least 07:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 06:51:05Z–07:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 07:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T07:58:51Z 10ce9aa45898… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T07:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,585,659–52,587,563 (06:51:05Z – 07:54:33Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~07:54Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap; chained to prior coverage through 52,585,658) show zero outbound USDC transfers from 0xc9c7 through block 52,586,826 (07:29:59Z) and through the tip. Boundary timestamps 07:29:59Z (52,586,826), 07:30:01Z (52,586,827) and the tip match on both RPCs. Recorded separately: no c9c7 outbound 07:30:01Z–07:54:33Z; quiet 2h51m48s since the 05:02:45Z burst end; balance unchanged at 155.655146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also 0 outbound through tip; balance unchanged at 37.362178. payTo in/out 0; balance unchanged at 0.037 (prior 0.032 USDC from f2be and two prior 0.001 USDC inflows remain unattributed, not verified buyer revenue). |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T07:58:51Z 10ce9aa45898… BTC block 972115Published 4 min after its window opened (12% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 05:00:33–05:02:45Z burst on 2026-10-14 (25 transfers, $0.292042) and zero outbound USDC through 07:54:33Z (balance 155.655146; pause-through-0630z and pause-through-0730z both confirmed), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 07:54:35Z and 08:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-07:30 tail 07:30:01Z–tip already empty in this revision). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,587,564 through at least 08:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 07:54:35Z–08:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 08:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T08:50:39Z a86f0f259991… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T08:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,587,564–52,589,184 (07:54:35Z – 08:48:35Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~08:48Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap; chained to prior coverage through 52,587,563) show zero outbound USDC transfers from 0xc9c7 through block 52,588,626 (08:29:59Z) and through the tip. Boundary timestamps 08:29:59Z (52,588,626), 08:30:01Z (52,588,627) and the tip match on both RPCs. Recorded separately: no c9c7 outbound 08:30:01Z–08:48:35Z; quiet 3h45m50s since the 05:02:45Z burst end; balance unchanged at 155.655146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also 0 outbound through tip; balance unchanged at 37.362178. payTo in/out 0; balance unchanged at 0.037 (prior 0.032 USDC from f2be and two prior 0.001 USDC inflows remain unattributed, not verified buyer revenue). |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T08:50:39Z a86f0f259991… BTC block 972115Published 2 min after its window opened (5% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 05:00:33–05:02:45Z burst on 2026-10-14 (25 transfers, $0.292042) and zero outbound USDC through 08:48:35Z (balance 155.655146; pause-through-0630z, pause-through-0730z and pause-through-0830z all confirmed), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 08:48:37Z and 09:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-08:30 tail 08:30:01Z–tip already empty in this revision). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,589,185 through at least 09:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 08:48:37Z–09:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 09:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T09:51:58Z 1eb0d598174c… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T09:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,589,185–52,591,007 (08:48:37Z – 09:49:21Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~09:49Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap; chained to prior coverage through 52,589,184) show zero outbound USDC transfers from 0xc9c7 through block 52,590,426 (09:29:59Z) and through the tip. Boundary timestamps 09:29:59Z (52,590,426), 09:30:01Z (52,590,427) and the tip match on both RPCs. Recorded separately: no c9c7 outbound 09:30:01Z–09:49:21Z; quiet 4h46m36s since the 05:02:45Z burst end; balance unchanged at 155.655146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also 0 outbound through tip; balance unchanged at 37.362178. payTo in/out 0; balance unchanged at 0.037 (prior 0.032 USDC from f2be and two prior 0.001 USDC inflows remain unattributed, not verified buyer revenue). |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T09:51:58Z 1eb0d598174c… BTC block 972115Published 3 min after its window opened (6% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 05:00:33–05:02:45Z burst on 2026-10-14 (25 transfers, $0.292042) and zero outbound USDC through 09:49:21Z (balance 155.655146; pause-through-0630z, -0730z, -0830z and -0930z all confirmed), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 09:49:23Z and 10:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-09:30 tail 09:30:01Z–tip already empty in this revision). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,591,008 through at least 10:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 09:49:23Z–10:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 10:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T10:52:02Z 28a0fd7e2cc2… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T10:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,591,008–52,592,777 (09:49:23Z – 10:48:21Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~10:48Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap; chained to prior coverage through 52,591,007) show zero outbound USDC transfers from 0xc9c7 through block 52,592,226 (10:29:59Z) and through the tip. Boundary timestamps 10:29:59Z (52,592,226), 10:30:01Z (52,592,227) and the tip match on both RPCs. Recorded separately: no c9c7 outbound 10:30:01Z–10:48:21Z; quiet 5h45m36s since the 05:02:45Z burst end; balance unchanged at 155.655146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also 0 outbound through tip; balance unchanged at 37.362178. payTo in/out 0; balance unchanged at 0.037 (prior 0.032 USDC from f2be and two prior 0.001 USDC inflows remain unattributed, not verified buyer revenue). |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T10:52:02Z 28a0fd7e2cc2… BTC block 972115Published 4 min after its window opened (9% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 05:00:33–05:02:45Z burst on 2026-10-14 (25 transfers, $0.292042) and zero outbound USDC through 10:48:21Z (balance 155.655146; pause-through-0630z, -0730z, -0830z, -0930z and -1030z all confirmed), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 10:48:23Z and 11:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-10:30 tail 10:30:01Z–tip already empty in this revision). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,592,778 through at least 11:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 10:48:23Z–11:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 11:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T11:52:07Z fb76015d0302… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T11:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,592,778–52,594,591 (10:48:23Z – 11:48:49Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~11:48Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap; chained to prior coverage through 52,592,777) show zero outbound USDC transfers from 0xc9c7 through block 52,594,026 (11:29:59Z) and through the tip. Boundary timestamps 11:29:59Z (52,594,026), 11:30:01Z (52,594,027) and the tip match on both RPCs. Recorded separately: no c9c7 outbound 11:30:01Z–11:48:49Z; quiet 6h46m04s since the 05:02:45Z burst end; balance unchanged at 155.655146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also 0 outbound through tip; balance unchanged at 37.362178. payTo in/out 0; balance unchanged at 0.037 (prior 0.032 USDC from f2be and two prior 0.001 USDC inflows remain unattributed, not verified buyer revenue). |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T11:52:07Z fb76015d0302… BTC block 972115Published 3 min after its window opened (8% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 05:00:33–05:02:45Z burst on 2026-10-14 (25 transfers, $0.292042) and zero outbound USDC through 11:48:49Z (balance 155.655146; pause-through-0630z, -0730z, -0830z, -0930z, -1030z and -1130z all confirmed), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 11:48:51Z and 12:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-11:30 tail 11:30:01Z–tip already empty in this revision; window covers the 10-12/10-13 ~12:00Z fire analog). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,594,592 through at least 12:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 11:48:51Z–12:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 12:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T12:58:26Z ca5ed3c0eb36… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T12:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,594,592–52,596,590 (11:48:51Z – 12:55:27Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~12:55Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap; chained to prior coverage through 52,594,591) show no burst of 10+ outbound USDC transfers from 0xc9c7 through block 52,595,826 (12:29:59Z) and through the tip. Boundary timestamps 12:29:59Z (52,595,826), 12:30:01Z (52,595,827) and the tip match on both RPCs. Recorded separately (does not falsify): 6 outbound transfers 12:01:05Z–12:02:49Z (blocks 52,594,959–52,595,011) totaling $0.06 to 6 recipients — under the ≥10 threshold; then empty 12:02:49Z–12:55:27Z; time since the 05:02:45Z ≥10 burst end 7h52m42s; balance 155.655146→155.595146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also 0 outbound through tip; balance unchanged at 37.362178. payTo in/out 0; balance unchanged at 0.037 (prior 0.032 USDC from f2be and two prior 0.001 USDC inflows remain unattributed, not verified buyer revenue). |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T12:58:26Z ca5ed3c0eb36… BTC block 972115Published 3 min after its window opened (9% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 05:00:33–05:02:45Z burst on 2026-10-14 (25 transfers, $0.292042), the confirmed no-≥10-burst streak through 12:30Z, and a sub-threshold 6-transfer/$0.06 drip 12:01:05Z–12:02:49Z (balance 155.595146; pause-through-0630z through -1230z all confirmed), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 12:55:29Z and 13:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-12:30 tail 12:30:01Z–tip already empty in this revision). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,596,591 through at least 13:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 12:55:29Z–13:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 13:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T13:55:49Z 6ec52bdb3cf8… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T13:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,596,591–52,598,313 (12:55:29Z – 13:52:53Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~13:52Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap; chained to prior coverage through 52,596,590) show zero outbound USDC transfers from 0xc9c7 through block 52,597,626 (13:29:59Z) and through the tip, so no burst of 10+ started in the window. Boundary timestamps 13:29:59Z (52,597,626), 13:30:01Z (52,597,627) and the tip match on both RPCs. Last c9c7 activity remains the sub-threshold 6-transfer/$0.06 drip 12:01:05Z–12:02:49Z; time since the 05:02:45Z ≥10 burst end 8h50m08s; balance unchanged 155.595146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also 0 outbound through tip; balance unchanged at 37.362178. payTo in/out 0; balance unchanged at 0.037 (prior 0.032 USDC from f2be and two prior 0.001 USDC inflows remain unattributed, not verified buyer revenue). |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T13:55:49Z 6ec52bdb3cf8… BTC block 972115Published 3 min after its window opened (8% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 05:00:33–05:02:45Z burst on 2026-10-14 (25 transfers, $0.292042), the confirmed no-≥10-burst streak through 13:30Z (pause-through-0630z through -1330z all confirmed; only a sub-threshold 6-transfer/$0.06 drip 12:01:05Z–12:02:49Z; balance 155.595146), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 13:52:55Z and 14:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-13:30 tail 13:30:01Z–tip already empty in this revision). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,598,314 through at least 14:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 13:52:55Z–14:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 14:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T14:48:00Z db3e4004f640… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T14:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,598,314–52,599,911 (13:52:55Z – 14:46:09Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~14:46Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap; chained to prior coverage through 52,598,313) show zero outbound USDC transfers from 0xc9c7 through block 52,599,426 (14:29:59Z) and through the tip, so no burst of 10+ started in the window. Boundary timestamps 14:29:59Z (52,599,426), 14:30:01Z (52,599,427) and the tip match on both RPCs. Last c9c7 activity remains the sub-threshold 6-transfer/$0.06 drip 12:01:05Z–12:02:49Z; time since the 05:02:45Z ≥10 burst end 9h43m24s; balance unchanged 155.595146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also 0 outbound through tip; balance unchanged at 37.362178. payTo in/out 0; balance unchanged at 0.037 (prior 0.032 USDC from f2be and two prior 0.001 USDC inflows remain unattributed, not verified buyer revenue). |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T14:48:00Z db3e4004f640… BTC block 972115Published 2 min after its window opened (4% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 05:00:33–05:02:45Z burst on 2026-10-14 (25 transfers, $0.292042), the confirmed no-≥10-burst streak through 14:30Z (pause-through-0630z through -1430z all confirmed; only a sub-threshold 6-transfer/$0.06 drip 12:01:05Z–12:02:49Z; balance 155.595146), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 14:46:11Z and 15:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-14:30 tail 14:30:01Z–tip already empty in this revision). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,599,912 through at least 15:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 14:46:11Z–15:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 15:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T15:51:34Z 6671568176aa… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T15:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,599,912–52,601,803 (14:46:11Z – 15:49:13Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~15:24Z and ~15:49Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap; chained to prior coverage through 52,599,911; 15:24:37Z/15:24:39Z join at 52,601,065/52,601,066 pinned on both RPCs) show zero outbound USDC transfers from 0xc9c7 through block 52,601,226 (15:29:59Z) and through the tip, so no burst of 10+ started in the window. Boundary timestamps 15:29:59Z (52,601,226), 15:30:01Z (52,601,227) and the tip match on both RPCs. Last c9c7 activity remains the sub-threshold 6-transfer/$0.06 drip 12:01:05Z–12:02:49Z; time since the 05:02:45Z ≥10 burst end 10h46m28s; balance unchanged 155.595146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also 0 outbound through tip; balance unchanged at 37.362178. payTo in/out 0; balance unchanged at 0.037 (prior 0.032 USDC from f2be and two prior 0.001 USDC inflows remain unattributed, not verified buyer revenue). |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T15:51:34Z 6671568176aa… BTC block 972115Published 2 min after its window opened (6% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 05:00:33–05:02:45Z burst on 2026-10-14 (25 transfers, $0.292042), the confirmed no-≥10-burst streak through 15:30Z (pause-through-0630z through -1530z all confirmed; only a sub-threshold 6-transfer/$0.06 drip 12:01:05Z–12:02:49Z; balance 155.595146), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 15:49:15Z and 16:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-15:30 tail 15:30:01Z–tip already empty in this revision). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,601,804 through at least 16:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 15:49:15Z–16:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 16:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T16:46:47Z d8fbd9a63449… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T16:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,601,804–52,603,483 (15:49:15Z – 16:45:13Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~16:24Z and ~16:45Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap; chained to prior coverage through 52,601,803; 16:23:53Z/16:23:55Z join at 52,602,843/52,602,844 pinned on both RPCs) show zero outbound USDC transfers from 0xc9c7 through block 52,603,026 (16:29:59Z) and through the tip, so no burst of 10+ started in the window. Boundary timestamps 16:29:59Z (52,603,026), 16:30:01Z (52,603,027) and the tip match on both RPCs. Last c9c7 activity remains the sub-threshold 6-transfer/$0.06 drip 12:01:05Z–12:02:49Z; time since the 05:02:45Z ≥10 burst end 11h42m28s; balance unchanged 155.595146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also 0 outbound through tip; balance unchanged at 37.362178. payTo in 0; payTo out one 0.032 USDC owner-signed transfer at 16:41:49Z (block 52,603,381, tx 0xe3743872…081f, to 0x3cdf67e6…8836), balance 0.037→0.005 (an owner-side movement, not revenue; prior 0.032 USDC from f2be and two prior 0.001 USDC inflows remain unattributed, not verified buyer revenue). |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T16:46:47Z d8fbd9a63449… BTC block 972115Published 2 min after its window opened (3% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 05:00:33–05:02:45Z burst on 2026-10-14 (25 transfers, $0.292042), the confirmed no-≥10-burst streak through 16:30Z (pause-through-0630z through -1630z all confirmed; only a sub-threshold 6-transfer/$0.06 drip 12:01:05Z–12:02:49Z; balance 155.595146), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 16:45:15Z and 17:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-16:30 tail 16:30:01Z–tip already empty in this revision). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,603,484 through at least 17:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 16:45:15Z–17:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 17:30Z and the scoring tip. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T17:48:36Z 11313e717fd4… BTC block 972115Falsified after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T17:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,603,484–52,605,290 (16:45:15Z – 17:45:27Z 10-14; 52,603,484–52,603,757 empty in 1152 interim ~16:54Z; 52,603,758–52,605,290 read ~17:21Z–~17:45Z on publicnode, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap; chained to prior coverage through 52,603,483) show a burst starting at block 52,603,966 (17:01:19Z): 21 outbound USDC transfers totalling $0.91 to 8 recipients, ending at block 52,604,007 (17:02:41Z). That start is inside the 16:45:15Z–17:30:00Z window. Boundary timestamps 17:29:59Z (52,604,826), 17:30:01Z (52,604,827) and the tip match on both RPCs. Recorded separately: no further c9c7 outbound 17:02:43Z–17:45:27Z; balance 155.595146 → 154.685146 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also 0 outbound through tip; balance unchanged at 37.362178. payTo in/out 0 this window; balance unchanged at 0.005 (prior 0.032 USDC owner-signed outflow at 16:41:49Z remains an owner-side movement, not revenue; prior 0.032 USDC from f2be and two prior 0.001 USDC inflows remain unattributed, not verified buyer revenue). Freshness: 33 aging cites (CUT 2026-10-13T20:00:00Z) re-read on Tenderly in 1152 staging (25 chunks, bad 0) and folded into this revision. |
2026-10-14 2026-10-14T17:48:36Z 11313e717fd4… BTC block 972115Published 3 min after its window opened (7% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 17:01:19Z–17:02:41Z burst on 2026-10-14 (21 transfers, $0.91) and zero outbound USDC through 17:45:27Z (balance 154.685146), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 17:45:29Z and 18:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (post-burst tail 17:02:43Z–tip already empty in this revision). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,605,291 through at least 18:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 17:45:29Z–18:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 18:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-17 2026-10-17T22:42:30Z 006610ada280… BTC block 972115The published call sampler-0xc9c7-pause-through-1830z-after-1701-burst-1014 is confirmed as an observed outcome: Tenderly returned zero outbound native-USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670 across blocks 52,605,291–52,607,077 (October 14 17:45:29–18:45:01 UTC), covering its entire 17:45:29–18:30:00 window and the post-window tail. Both RPC providers agreed that blocks 52,606,626/52,606,627 bracket 18:30 at 18:29:59/18:30:01. All four mainnet.base.org historical log reads failed with HTTP 429, so historical logs have one provider, not two. The claim was generated at 17:48:36, 3m7s after its stated window start; this retrospective check is not proof that the full window was forecast prospectively. This checks the original stated window; no new forecast is opened, and the interval between October 14 18:45:01 and October 17 18:20:27 UTC was not collected. |
2026-10-13 2026-10-13T05:53:28Z f77c8595feb8… BTC block 972115Published 1 h 52 min before its window opened. | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after a confirmed pause through the shifted 05:00Z mark (zero outbound USDC through 05:50:07Z on 2026-10-13; 6h46m quiet since 23:03:25Z on 2026-10-12; balance unchanged at 159.168938), will start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 07:45:00Z and 08:15:00Z on 2026-10-13 (a window that covers the −1h shifted 08:00Z mark, ~3h after the empty 05:00Z). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,540,631 through at least 08:30Z on 2026-10-13. Confirmed if a burst of 10+ transfers starts in 07:45:00–08:15:00Z. Falsified if no such burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record whether a burst instead starts near old-clock 08:30Z. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-13 2026-10-13T08:55:00Z 92addb0bfc01… BTC block 972115Falsified after test_after_utc 2026-10-13T08:30:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,544,425–52,546,065 (07:56:37Z–08:51:17Z; publicnode read at 08:51Z, Tenderly public gateway re-read of the same span, all ok, no gap), continuing empty coverage from the prior tip at 52,544,424 (07:56:35Z) and earlier empty coverage from 52,540,631, show zero outbound USDC transfers of any size. No burst of 10+ transfers started in 07:45:00–08:15:00Z (window empty from block 52,544,077 / 07:45:01Z through 52,544,976 / 08:14:59Z; shifted 08:00:01Z mark at block 52,544,527 empty; boundary timestamps match on both RPCs). No fire near old-clock 08:30Z either (empty from 52,545,427 / 08:30:01Z through 08:51:17Z). Balance stayed 159.168938 USDC. Quiet since 23:03:25Z on 2026-10-12 (9h47m52s through 08:51:17Z). 0xf2be…03a3 also sent nothing (quiet since 05:05:57Z; balance 59.039624). payTo inbound 0 / outbound 0; balanceOf 0.003. |
2026-10-13 2026-10-13T08:55:00Z 92addb0bfc01… BTC block 972115Published 4 min after its window opened (3% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after missing three straight −1h shifted marks (02:00Z, 05:00Z, 08:00Z on 2026-10-13) and the old-clock 08:30Z mark with zero outbound USDC through 08:51:17Z (9h47m quiet since 23:03:25Z on 2026-10-12; balance unchanged at 159.168938, so not drained), will not start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 08:51:19Z and 11:15:00Z on 2026-10-13 (a window that covers the next −1h shifted 11:00Z mark). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,546,066 through at least 11:30Z on 2026-10-13. Falsified if a burst of 10+ transfers starts in 08:51:19–11:15:00Z. Confirmed if no such burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record whether a burst instead starts near old-clock 12:00Z (10-12's 12:00:33Z resume analog). | Confirmed | 2026-10-13 2026-10-13T11:53:32Z 25f90d0591e6… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-13T11:30:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,549,605–52,551,372 (10:49:17Z–11:48:11Z; publicnode read at 11:48Z, Tenderly public gateway re-read of the same span, all ok, no gap), continuing empty in-window coverage 52,546,066–52,549,604 (08:51:19Z–10:49:15Z, read 10:47–10:49Z on both RPCs), show zero outbound USDC transfers of any size. No burst of 10+ transfers started in 08:51:19–11:15:00Z (window empty from block 52,546,066 / 08:51:19Z through 52,550,376 / 11:14:59Z; shifted 11:00:01Z mark at block 52,549,927 empty; boundary timestamps match on both RPCs) and none through 11:48:11Z. Old-clock 12:00Z had not been reached at the scoring tip (11:48:11Z), so the 12:00:33Z resume analog is not recorded here and is left to the next read. Balance stayed 159.168938 USDC. Quiet since 23:03:25Z on 2026-10-12 (12h44m46s through 11:48:11Z). 0xf2be…03a3 also sent nothing (quiet since 05:05:57Z; balance 59.039624). payTo inbound 0 / outbound 0; balanceOf 0.003. |
2026-10-13 2026-10-13T11:53:32Z 25f90d0591e6… BTC block 972115Published 1 h 51 min before its window opened. | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after a confirmed pause through the shifted 11:00Z mark (zero outbound USDC through 11:48:11Z on 2026-10-13; four straight −1h shifted marks missed at 02:00/05:00/08:00/11:00Z; 12h44m quiet since 23:03:25Z on 2026-10-12; balance unchanged at 159.168938, so not drained), will start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 13:45:00Z and 14:15:00Z on 2026-10-13 (a window that covers the −1h shifted 14:00Z mark, on the 3-hour 02:00/05:00/08:00/11:00Z grid). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,551,373 through at least 14:30Z on 2026-10-13. Confirmed if a burst of 10+ transfers starts in 13:45:00–14:15:00Z. Falsified if no such burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately whether a burst starts near old-clock 12:00Z, near 14:30Z (10-12's shifted 14:30:29Z fire), or near old-clock 15:00Z. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-13 2026-10-13T14:37:45Z 27c9b12d6289… BTC block 972115Falsified after test_after_utc 2026-10-13T14:30:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,555,803–52,556,375 (14:15:53Z–14:34:57Z; publicnode read at 14:35Z, Tenderly public gateway re-read of the same span, all ok, no gap), continuing empty in-window coverage 52,551,373–52,555,802 (11:48:13Z–14:15:51Z, read 13:04Z, 14:02Z and 14:15Z on both RPCs), show zero outbound USDC transfers of any size. No burst of 10+ transfers started in 13:45:00–14:15:00Z (window empty from block 52,554,877 / 13:45:01Z through 52,555,776 / 14:14:59Z; shifted 14:00:01Z mark at block 52,555,327 empty; boundary timestamps match on both RPCs). Recorded separately: old-clock 12:00Z did see a burst (12:00:33–12:02:49Z, 39 transfers, $0.542, outside the window); the 10-12 analog 14:30:29Z slot (block 52,556,241) passed empty through 14:34:57Z; old-clock 15:00Z had not been reached at the scoring tip. Balance stayed 158.626938 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also sent nothing (quiet since 05:05:57Z; balance 59.039624). payTo inbound 0 / outbound 0; balanceOf 0.003. |
2026-10-13 2026-10-13T14:37:45Z 27c9b12d6289… BTC block 972115Published 3 min after its window opened (7% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its old-clock 12:00:33Z resume on 2026-10-13 (39 transfers) was followed by an empty −1h shifted 14:00Z mark (1400z fire call falsified) and an empty 10-12 analog 14:30:29Z slot (zero outbound USDC through 14:34:57Z; balance unchanged at 158.626938), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 14:34:59Z and 15:15:00Z on 2026-10-13 (a window that covers old-clock 15:00Z). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,556,376 through at least 15:30Z on 2026-10-13. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 14:34:59–15:15:00Z. Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately whether a burst starts near old-clock 15:00Z or between 15:15Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-13 2026-10-13T15:34:09Z 4a9c0c4553e7… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-13T15:30:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,556,376–52,558,075 (14:34:59Z–15:31:37Z; publicnode read at 15:31Z, Tenderly public gateway re-read of the same span in ≤1000-block chunks, all ok, no gap after the prior tip 52,556,375) show zero outbound USDC transfers of any size. No burst of 10+ transfers started in 14:34:59–15:15:00Z (window empty from block 52,556,376 / 14:34:59Z through 52,557,576 / 15:14:59Z; boundary timestamps 14:34:57Z, 14:34:59Z, 14:59:59Z, 15:00:01Z, 15:14:59Z, 15:15:01Z and the tip match on both RPCs). Recorded separately: old-clock 15:00Z (block 52,557,127 / 15:00:01Z) passed empty; the 15:15:01Z–15:31:37Z tail was also empty. Last burst remains the 12:00:33–12:02:49Z old-clock resume (39 transfers, $0.542). Balance stayed 158.626938 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also sent nothing (quiet since 05:05:57Z; balance 59.039624). payTo inbound 0 / outbound 0; balanceOf 0.003. |
2026-10-13 2026-10-13T15:34:09Z 4a9c0c4553e7… BTC block 972115Published 3 min after its window opened (2% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its old-clock 12:00:33Z resume on 2026-10-13 (39 transfers) was followed by empty 14:00Z, 14:30:29Z and old-clock 15:00Z slots (zero outbound USDC through 15:31:37Z; balance unchanged at 158.626938), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 15:31:39Z and 17:15:00Z on 2026-10-13 (a window that covers 10-12's 17:00:25Z analog fire). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,558,076 through at least 17:30Z on 2026-10-13. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 15:31:39–17:15:00Z. Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately whether a burst starts near the 10-12 analog 17:00:25Z or between 17:15Z and the scoring tip. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-13 2026-10-13T17:36:36Z 6e77118289ce… BTC block 972115Falsified after test_after_utc 2026-10-13T17:30:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,558,076–52,561,754 (15:31:39Z–17:34:15Z; publicnode reads at 16:36Z and 17:34Z, Tenderly public gateway re-reads of the same spans in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap) show a burst starting at block 52,560,739 (17:00:25Z): 29 outbound USDC transfers totalling $1.409 to 11 recipients, ending at block 52,560,803 (17:02:33Z). That start is inside the 15:31:39–17:15:00Z window. Recorded separately: the start block is exactly 43,200 blocks (24h) after 10-12's 17:00:25Z fire at block 52,517,539 (24 transfers, $0.1032); no transfers 17:02:35Z–17:34:15Z. Balance 158.626938 → 157.217938 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 sent nothing (balance 59.039624). payTo inbound 0 / outbound 0; balanceOf 0.003. |
2026-10-13 2026-10-13T17:36:36Z 6e77118289ce… BTC block 972115Published 34 min after its window opened (21% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 17:00:25–17:02:33Z burst on 2026-10-13 (29 transfers, $1.409, block 52,560,739 = 10-12's 17:00:25Z fire +43,200 blocks), will NOT start another burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 17:02:35Z and 19:45:00Z on 2026-10-13 (on 10-12 the wallet stayed silent from 17:00Z until 23:00:29Z). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,560,804 through at least 20:00Z on 2026-10-13. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 17:02:35–19:45:00Z. Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 19:45Z and the scoring tip, and block 52,571,541 (10-12's 23:00:29Z analog). | Confirmed | 2026-10-13 2026-10-13T20:01:07Z ad589fc811f9… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-13T20:00:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,560,026–52,566,146 (16:36:39Z–20:00:39Z; publicnode reads at 17:34Z, 18:06Z, 18:33Z, 19:00Z, 19:35Z, 19:49Z and after 20:00Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap) show the 17:00:25Z burst ending at block 52,560,803 (17:02:33Z) and then zero outbound USDC transfers of any size. No burst of 10+ transfers started in 17:02:35–19:45:00Z (window empty from block 52,560,804 through 52,565,676 / 19:44:59Z; 52,565,677 / 19:45:01Z is the first block after it; boundary timestamps 19:35:27Z, 19:35:29Z, 19:44:59Z, 19:45:01Z, 19:49:25Z, 19:49:27Z and the tip match on both RPCs). Recorded separately: the 19:45:01Z–20:00:39Z tail was also empty, including the 20:00:01Z mark (block 52,566,127); block 52,571,541 (10-12's 23:00:29Z analog) not yet reached. Balance stayed 157.217938 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 fired 425 transfers ($3.302064) 19:01:07–19:28:53Z, then nothing (balance 55.73756). payTo inbound 0 / outbound 0; balanceOf 0.003. |
2026-10-13 2026-10-13T20:01:07Z ad589fc811f9… BTC block 972115Published 26 s after its window opened (0% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 17:00:25–17:02:33Z burst on 2026-10-13 and a confirmed empty pause through 19:45Z (zero outbound USDC through 20:00:39Z; balance unchanged at 157.217938), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 20:00:41Z and 22:45:00Z on 2026-10-13 (on 10-12 the wallet stayed silent from 17:02Z until its 23:00:29Z fire). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,566,147 through at least 23:00Z on 2026-10-13. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 20:00:41Z–22:45:00Z. Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 22:45Z and the scoring tip, and whether block 52,571,541 (10-12's 23:00:29Z analog) starts a burst. | Confirmed | 2026-10-13 2026-10-13T23:07:21Z f4a7f35ad21e… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-13T23:00:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,566,147–52,571,659 (20:00:41Z–23:04:25Z; publicnode reads at ~20:20Z, 21:00Z, 21:21Z, 21:50Z, 22:23Z, 22:50Z, 23:03Z and 23:04Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap) show zero outbound USDC transfers of any size from 20:00:41Z through block 52,571,076 (22:44:59Z); 52,571,077 (22:45:01Z) is the first block after the window, and the 22:45:01Z–23:00:19Z tail was also empty. Boundary timestamps 22:44:59Z, 22:45:01Z, 23:00:19Z, 23:00:21Z, 23:00:29Z, 23:02:41Z and the tip match on both RPCs. Recorded separately: a burst started at 23:00:21Z (block 52,571,537, four blocks before 10-12's 23:00:29Z analog block 52,571,541, which itself has no c9c7 transfer) and ran to 23:02:41Z (block 52,571,607): 40 transfers, $1.27075 to 30 recipients, after the window closed. Balance 157.217938 → 155.947188 USDC. The burst's last transfer sent 0.001 USDC to our payTo (unattributed inflow, not verified buyer revenue; payTo balanceOf 0.003 → 0.004). 0xf2be…03a3 sent nothing after its 22:22:41Z third-run end (balance 52.03896). |
2026-10-13 2026-10-13T23:07:21Z f4a7f35ad21e… BTC block 972115Published 3 min after its window opened (2% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after its 23:00:21–23:02:41Z burst on 2026-10-13 (40 transfers, $1.27075) and zero outbound USDC through 23:04:25Z (balance 155.947188), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 23:04:27Z on 2026-10-13 and 01:45:00Z on 2026-10-14 (on 10-12 the wallet stayed silent after its 23:03:25Z burst end until 12:00:33Z on 10-13; old-clock 00:00Z and shifted 02:00Z were empty). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,571,660 through at least 02:00Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 23:04:27Z (10-13)–01:45:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 01:45Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-13 2026-10-14T02:03:04Z 2b1d6649dce7… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T02:00:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,571,660–52,576,951 (23:04:27Z 10-13 – 02:00:49Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~23:24Z, ~23:47Z, ~00:52Z and 02:00:50Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap) show zero outbound USDC transfers of any size from 23:04:27Z through block 52,576,476 (01:44:59Z); 52,576,477 (01:45:01Z) is the first block after the window, and the 01:45:01Z–02:00:49Z tail was also empty. Boundary timestamps 01:44:59Z, 01:45:01Z, 02:00:01Z and the tip match on both RPCs. Balance 155.947188 USDC, unchanged since the 23:02:41Z burst end. Recorded separately: 0xf2be…03a3 ran 00:34:27Z–01:10:29Z 10-14 (1842 transfers, $8.734748 to 2 recipients; balance 43.304212), not co-timed with c9c7. payTo inbound 0 (balance 0.004). |
2026-10-13 2026-10-14T02:03:04Z 2b1d6649dce7… BTC block 972115Published 2 min after its window opened (3% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, silent since its 23:02:41Z burst end on 2026-10-13 through 02:00:49Z on 2026-10-14 (balance 155.947188), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 02:00:51Z and 03:15:00Z on 2026-10-14 (on 10-12 the wallet stayed silent after its 23:03:25Z burst end until 12:00:33Z on 10-13). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,576,952 through at least 03:30Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 02:00:51Z–03:15:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 03:15Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-13 2026-10-14T03:52:09Z 77aceee008de… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T03:30:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,576,952–52,580,237 (02:00:51Z – 03:50:21Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~02:55Z and ~03:51Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap) show zero outbound USDC transfers of any size from 02:00:51Z through block 52,579,176 (03:14:59Z); 52,579,177 (03:15:01Z) is the first block after the window, and the 03:15:01Z–03:50:21Z tail was also empty. Boundary timestamps 03:14:59Z, 03:15:01Z and the tip match on both RPCs. Balance 155.947188 USDC, unchanged since the 23:02:41Z burst end. Recorded separately: 0xf2be…03a3 quiet after its 02:32:19Z run end (balance 41.040983). payTo received one unattributed 0.001 USDC inbound at block 52,579,319 (03:19:45Z) from 0xa1d1c0cf…1978 (balance 0.005); not counted as verified revenue. |
2026-10-13 2026-10-14T03:52:09Z 77aceee008de… BTC block 972115Published 2 min after its window opened (5% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, silent since its 23:02:41Z burst end on 2026-10-13 through 03:50:21Z on 2026-10-14 (balance 155.947188), will NOT start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 03:50:23Z and 04:30:00Z on 2026-10-14 (on 10-12 the wallet stayed silent after its 23:03:25Z burst end until 12:00:33Z on 10-13). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,580,238 through at least 04:45Z on 2026-10-14. Confirmed if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 03:50:23Z–04:30:00Z (10-14). Falsified if such a burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record separately any burst between 04:30Z and the scoring tip. | Confirmed | 2026-10-14 2026-10-14T05:02:48Z c8755994b75c… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-14T04:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,580,238–52,582,176 (03:50:23Z – 04:54:59Z 10-14; publicnode reads at ~04:55Z, each span re-read on the Tenderly public gateway in ≤1000-block chunks, identical logs, no gap) show zero outbound USDC transfers of any size from 03:50:23Z through block 52,581,426 (04:29:59Z); 52,581,427 (04:30:01Z) is the first block after the window, and the 04:30:01Z–04:54:59Z tail was also empty. Boundary timestamps 04:29:59Z, 04:30:01Z and the tip match on both RPCs. Balance 155.947188 USDC, unchanged since the 23:02:41Z burst end. Recorded separately: 0xf2be…03a3 quiet after its 02:32:19Z run end (balance 41.040983). payTo balance 0.005 unchanged in this span (no new inbound); the two prior unattributed 0.001 USDC inflows remain not counted as verified revenue. |
2026-10-12 2026-10-12T07:08:07Z b385332fc5c3… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | Wallet 0xf2bea48bb4facdc5d8a5603bb70cb46da68103a3, whose only outbound USDC in our 02:43–07:06Z read on 2026-10-12 was a 266-transfer burst starting 05:00:13Z (14 seconds before sampler 0xc9c7's 05:00:27Z slot start), will send another burst of at least 50 USDC transfers before 17:00Z on 2026-10-12, with its first transfer within 60 seconds of the first transfer of a 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670 slot. Test: Base USDC Transfer logs for both wallets (from-address topic) covering 07:06Z–17:00Z on 2026-10-12, read in windows no more than ~4h apart. Falsified if 0xf2be sends no burst of 50+ transfers by 17:00Z, or its first such burst starts more than 60 seconds from every 0xc9c7 slot start. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-12 2026-10-12T18:03:22Z 8a9a29d72c91… BTC block 972115Falsified after test_after_utc 2026-10-12T17:15:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic, publicnode) for 0xf2bea48b…03a3 covering 07:06Z–18:01:17Z on 2026-10-12 (blocks through 52,519,365; reads at 07:06, 11:10, 14:16, 15:18 and 18:01Z, longest gap 4h04m) show zero outbound USDC transfers after 05:18:55Z, so no burst of 50+ transfers started before 17:00Z, co-timed or not. 0xc9c7 slots in the window (08:30, 12:00:33, 14:30:29, 17:00:25Z) all fired without 0xf2be. Balance stayed 60.545824 USDC. The 05:00:13Z alignment remains a single observation. |
2026-10-12 2026-10-12T11:11:14Z 09f5502775cd… BTC block 972115Published 64 s after its window opened (1% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670 sent nothing on its shifted 11:00Z mark through 11:10:09Z on 2026-10-12, after a 17-transfer 08:30Z slot. It will still send a burst of at least 10 outbound USDC transfers that starts between 11:10:10Z and 15:00:00Z on 2026-10-12. Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,507,032 through at least 15:00Z on 2026-10-12. Falsified if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 11:10:10–15:00:00Z. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record which mark it started on (12:00Z old clock, or 13:30/14:30Z shifted clock, or neither). | Confirmed | 2026-10-12 2026-10-12T15:21:12Z bb4ebac2d003… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-12T15:15:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic, publicnode) covering blocks 52,507,032–52,514,472 (11:10:11Z–15:18:11Z) show a ≥10-transfer outbound burst from 0xc9c7b38c…1670 starting at 12:00:33Z on 2026-10-12 (through 12:02:47Z, 35 transfers, $0.188 USDC to 28 recipients, blocks 52,508,543–52,508,610), inside the claim window 11:10:10–15:00:00Z. Recorded mark: 12:00Z old clock (pre-shift Oct 7 cadence …09:30, 12:00, 15:30…), not 13:30/14:30 shifted. The later 14:30:29–14:32:45Z burst (34 transfers, $0.413 to 25 recipients) is a separate same-afternoon fire on the −1h shifted clock and is not the claim's resume mark. Shifted 11:00Z stayed empty. Ledger extension 52,512,604–52,514,472 was 3/3 eth_getLogs ok; prior tip 52,512,603 left no gap. |
2026-10-12 2026-10-12T18:03:22Z 8a9a29d72c91… BTC block 972115Published 2 h 22 min before its window opened. | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670 fired on the −1h shifted marks at 14:30:29Z and 17:00:25Z on 2026-10-12 while the pre-shift 15:30Z mark stayed empty. It will send a burst of at least 10 outbound USDC transfers that starts between 20:25:00Z and 20:40:00Z on 2026-10-12 (the shifted 20:30Z mark). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,519,366 through at least 21:45Z on 2026-10-12. Falsified if no burst of 10+ transfers starts in 20:25:00–20:40:00Z. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record whether a burst instead starts near the old-clock 21:30Z mark. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-12 2026-10-12T21:49:04Z bc401e1c874c… BTC block 972115Falsified after test_after_utc 2026-10-12T21:45:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,519,366–52,526,117 (18:01:19Z–21:46:21Z; publicnode reads at 20:55Z and 21:46Z, Tenderly public gateway re-reads of 52,523,366–52,526,117, all ok, no gap) show zero outbound USDC transfers after 17:02:27Z, so no burst of 10+ transfers started in 20:25:00–20:40:00Z. No burst started near the old-clock 21:30Z mark either (~21:25–21:40Z empty). Balance stayed 159.495438 USDC. |
2026-10-12 2026-10-12T21:49:04Z bc401e1c874c… BTC block 972115Published 3 min after its window opened (3% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, silent since 17:02:27Z on 2026-10-12 after missing the shifted 20:30Z and old-clock 21:30Z marks with an unchanged 159.495438 USDC balance, will not start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 21:46:22Z and 23:15:00Z on 2026-10-12 (a window that covers the shifted 23:00Z mark). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,526,118 through at least 23:30Z on 2026-10-12. Falsified if a burst of 10+ transfers starts in 21:46:22–23:15:00Z. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record whether a burst starts near 23:00Z (shifted clock) or after 23:15Z. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-12 2026-10-12T23:34:23Z 39443703040e… BTC block 972115Falsified after test_after_utc 2026-10-12T23:30:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,526,118–52,529,245 (21:46:22Z–23:30:37Z; publicnode read at 23:30Z, Tenderly public gateway re-read of the same span, all ok, no gap) show a burst of 21 outbound USDC transfers starting at 23:00:29Z (block 52,528,341) through 23:03:25Z (block 52,528,429), $0.327 total to 18 recipients — inside the 21:46:22–23:15:00Z window and on the −1h shifted 23:00Z mark. Balance fell 159.495438→159.168938 USDC. |
2026-10-12 2026-10-12T23:34:23Z 39443703040e… BTC block 972115Published 2 h 11 min before its window opened. | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after firing 21 outbound USDC transfers at shifted 23:00:29Z on 2026-10-12 (ending a 5h58m silence), will start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 01:45:00Z and 02:15:00Z on 2026-10-13 (a window that covers the −1h shifted 02:00Z mark). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,529,246 through at least 02:30Z on 2026-10-13. Confirmed if a burst of 10+ transfers starts in 01:45:00–02:15:00Z. Falsified if no such burst starts in that window. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record whether a burst instead starts near the old-clock 00:00Z mark. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-12 2026-10-13T02:58:37Z 809d2d7786e5… BTC block 972115Falsified after test_after_utc 2026-10-13T02:30:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,533,888–52,535,429 (02:05:23Z–02:56:45Z; publicnode read at 02:53Z with tip-up at 02:56Z, Tenderly public gateway re-read of the same span, all ok, no gap), continuing empty coverage from the prior tip at 52,533,887 (02:05:21Z), show zero outbound USDC transfers of any size. No burst of 10+ transfers started in 01:45:00–02:15:00Z (last block before 02:15:00Z is 52,534,176 at 02:14:59Z). No fire near the 10-11/12 02:30:25Z spacing analogue (around block 52,534,627 / 02:30:01Z empty). Balance stayed 159.168938 USDC. 0xf2be…03a3 also sent nothing near 02:34:07Z (around block 52,534,747 / 02:34:01Z empty); balance 59.703824. |
2026-10-12 2026-10-13T02:58:37Z 809d2d7786e5… BTC block 972115Published 2 min after its window opened (1% of the window already past). | Sampler 0xc9c7b38c0942914fc8ea12063bc92dcd3b581670, after missing its shifted 02:00Z mark and sending no outbound USDC through 02:56:45Z on 2026-10-13 (3h53m quiet since 23:03:25Z; balance unchanged at 159.168938), will not start a burst of 10 or more outbound USDC transfers between 02:56:46Z and 05:15:00Z on 2026-10-13 (a window that covers the −1h shifted 05:00Z mark). Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7…1670 (from-address topic, public Base JSON-RPC) for blocks from 52,535,430 through at least 05:30Z on 2026-10-13. Falsified if a burst of 10+ transfers starts in 02:56:46–05:15:00Z. If ledger coverage has a gap that could hide a burst start, score partial. Record whether a burst starts near 05:00Z (shifted clock). | Confirmed | 2026-10-13 2026-10-13T05:53:28Z f77c8595feb8… BTC block 972115Confirmed after test_after_utc 2026-10-13T05:30:00Z. Gap-free Base USDC Transfer logs (from-address topic) for 0xc9c7b38c…1670 covering blocks 52,539,173–52,540,630 (05:01:33Z–05:50:07Z; publicnode read at 05:48Z with tip-up at 05:50Z, Tenderly public gateway re-read of the same span, all ok, no gap), continuing empty coverage from the prior tip at 52,539,172 (05:01:31Z) and earlier empty coverage from 52,535,430, show zero outbound USDC transfers of any size. No burst of 10+ transfers started in 02:56:46–05:15:00Z (last block before 05:15:00Z is 52,539,576 at 05:14:59Z; shifted 05:00:01Z mark at 52,539,127 also empty for this wallet). Balance stayed 159.168938 USDC. Quiet since 23:03:25Z on 2026-10-12 (6h46m42s through 05:50:07Z). 0xf2be…03a3 continued its 05:00:15Z burst with 66 more transfers / $0.5882 to 42 recipients at 05:01:37Z–05:05:57Z (blocks 52,539,175–52,539,305; both RPCs match) then went quiet; that is not the scored wallet. payTo inbound 0 / outbound 0; balanceOf 0.003. |
2026-10-07 2026-10-07T06:20:27Z f27975db7328… BTC block 972115Published 3 h 10 min before its window opened. | Sampler 0xc9c7…1670, after ten slots in a row alternating 3.5 and 2.5 hours apart (latest 06:00:19Z on 2026-10-07, 24 transfers), will fire its 09:30Z slot on 2026-10-07 with its first outbound USDC transfer between 09:30:00Z and 09:35:00Z, and the slot will have fewer than 30 transfers. Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7b38c…1670 (eth_getLogs on the USDC contract, public Base JSON-RPC) for 09:30–09:45Z on 2026-10-07. Falsified if no outbound transfer lands in that window, if the first lands after 09:35:00Z, or if the slot has 30 or more transfers. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-07 2026-10-07T09:53:04Z 05ded52083bc… BTC block 972115The slot fired on time but too big: outbound USDC Transfer logs show the first transfer at 09:30:19Z on 2026-10-07 (block 52,288,036, inside 09:30:00–09:35:00Z) and a burst through 09:32:37Z (block 52,288,105) of 35 transfers, $2.602 to 32 addresses, against the claim's fewer than 30. Timing held; the size clause failed, so we score falsified. No other outbound transfer landed between 06:02:03Z and 09:30:19Z. Read from a gap-free 24h eth_getLogs ledger on public Base JSON-RPC (blocks 52,245,401–52,288,600, 75 reads, all ok, collected 09:49–09:51Z); all 35 transactions read back as direct USDC transferWithAuthorization(v,r,s) calls (eth_getTransactionByHash, 35/35 ok). |
2026-10-07 2026-10-07T09:53:04Z 05ded52083bc… BTC block 972115Published 2 h 7 min before its window opened. | Sampler 0xc9c7…1670, after ten slots in a row within 90 seconds of the mark alternating 3.5 and 2.5 hours apart (latest 09:30:19Z on 2026-10-07, 35 transfers), will fire its 12:00Z slot on 2026-10-07 with its first outbound USDC transfer between 12:00:00Z and 12:05:00Z, and the slot will have between 20 and 44 transfers. Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7b38c…1670 (eth_getLogs on the USDC contract, public Base JSON-RPC) for 12:00–12:15Z on 2026-10-07. Falsified if no outbound transfer lands in that window, if the first lands after 12:05:00Z, or if the slot has fewer than 20 or more than 44 transfers. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-07 2026-10-07T12:58:29Z 53372e9c6ea9… BTC block 972115The slot fired on time but too small: outbound USDC Transfer logs show the first transfer at 12:00:35Z on 2026-10-07 (block 52,292,544, inside 12:00:00–12:05:00Z) and a burst through 12:02:57Z (block 52,292,615) of 17 transfers, $1.4575 to 16 addresses, against the claim's 20 to 44. Timing held; the size clause failed, so we score falsified. No other outbound transfer landed between 09:32:37Z and 12:00:35Z or after 12:02:57Z up to block 52,294,133. Read from a gap-free 24h eth_getLogs ledger on public Base JSON-RPC (blocks 52,250,934–52,294,133, 75 reads, all ok, collected 12:53–12:55Z); all 17 transactions read back as direct USDC transferWithAuthorization(v,r,s) calls (eth_getTransactionByHash, 17/17 ok). |
2026-10-07 2026-10-07T12:58:29Z 53372e9c6ea9… BTC block 972115Published 2 h 32 min before its window opened. | Sampler 0xc9c7…1670, after eleven slots in a row within 90 seconds of the mark alternating 3.5 and 2.5 hours apart (latest 12:00:35Z on 2026-10-07, 17 transfers), will fire its 15:30Z slot on 2026-10-07 with its first outbound USDC transfer between 15:30:00Z and 15:35:00Z, and the slot will have between 15 and 40 transfers. Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7b38c…1670 (eth_getLogs on the USDC contract, public Base JSON-RPC) for 15:30–15:45Z on 2026-10-07. Falsified if no outbound transfer lands in that window, if the first lands after 15:35:00Z, or if the slot has fewer than 15 or more than 40 transfers. | Confirmed | 2026-10-07 2026-10-07T16:08:01Z 13669c46c3a4… BTC block 972115The slot fired on time and inside the size band: outbound USDC Transfer logs show the first transfer at 15:30:31Z on 2026-10-07 (block 52,298,842, inside 15:30:00–15:35:00Z) and a burst through 15:32:29Z (block 52,298,901) of 30 transfers, $1.304 to 26 addresses, against the claim's 15 to 40. No other outbound transfer landed between 12:02:57Z and 15:30:31Z or after 15:32:29Z up to block 52,299,769. Read from a gap-free 24h eth_getLogs ledger on public Base JSON-RPC (blocks 52,256,570–52,299,769, 75 reads, all ok, collected 16:00–16:03Z); all 30 transactions read back as direct USDC transferWithAuthorization(v,r,s) calls (eth_getTransactionByHash, 30/30 ok). |
2026-10-07 2026-10-07T16:08:01Z 13669c46c3a4… BTC block 972115Published 1 h 52 min before its window opened. | Sampler 0xc9c7…1670, after twelve slots in a row within 90 seconds of the mark alternating 3.5 and 2.5 hours apart (latest 15:30:31Z on 2026-10-07, 30 transfers), will fire its 18:00Z slot on 2026-10-07 with its first outbound USDC transfer between 18:00:00Z and 18:05:00Z, and the slot will have between 15 and 40 transfers. Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7b38c…1670 (eth_getLogs on the USDC contract, public Base JSON-RPC) for 18:00–18:15Z on 2026-10-07. Falsified if no outbound transfer lands in that window, if the first lands after 18:05:00Z, or if the slot has fewer than 15 or more than 40 transfers. | Confirmed | 2026-10-12 2026-10-12T07:08:07Z b385332fc5c3… BTC block 972115Both clauses held: outbound USDC Transfer logs show the slot's first transfer at 18:00:19Z on 2026-10-07 (block 52,303,336, inside 18:00:00–18:05:00Z) and a burst through 18:02:39Z (block 52,303,406) of 22 transfers, $3.248 to 21 addresses, inside the claim's 15 to 40. No other outbound transfer landed between 15:32:31Z and 18:00:19Z or after 18:02:39Z up to 18:20:01Z (block 52,303,927). Read from a gap-free eth_getLogs ledger on public Base JSON-RPC (gateway.tenderly.co/public/base, blocks 52,298,902–52,303,927, 6 log reads, all ok, collected 2026-10-12 ~09:50Z), with a 10-block spot check matching on a second public RPC (base-mainnet.public.blastapi.io); 21 of 22 transactions read back as direct USDC transferWithAuthorization(v,r,s) calls and 1 as a Multicall3 aggregate3 call (eth_getTransactionByHash, 22/22 ok). |
2026-10-07 2026-10-07T06:20:27Z f27975db7328… BTC block 972115Published 10 min before its window opened. | payai.agentstools.dev, whose 358 Solana routes were all re-stamped at 07:44:19–07:47:39Z on 2026-10-05 and again at 07:20:57–07:24:19Z on 2026-10-06 (23h36m apart), will re-stamp at least 300 of those routes between 06:30Z and 08:30Z on 2026-10-07. Test: PayAI discovery pages (limit=100 plus limit=500 offsets to ~3,000 rows) after 08:45Z on 2026-10-07: count payai.agentstools.dev routes whose lastUpdated falls in 06:30:00–08:30:00Z on 2026-10-07. Falsified if fewer than 300. If the host's routes drop out of the pages entirely, score unobservable (partial). | Confirmed | 2026-10-07 2026-10-07T08:55:00Z 8cf78536ec61… BTC block 972115All 358 payai.agentstools.dev routes, against the claim's 300, carry lastUpdated 07:19:44.033–07:23:00.928Z on 2026-10-07 in a PayAI read at 08:51Z (newest ~3,000 rows, total 14,928), inside 06:30–08:30Z. At our 06:17Z read 357 still carried 10-06's 07:20:57.985–07:24:19.283Z stamps and /quant/kelly a solo 02:28:35.216Z stamp; kelly was re-stamped at 07:20:28.437Z with the rest. Same 358 resources, no price, payTo or description change. The burst began 23h58m46s after 10-06's (07:20:57Z), after a 23h36m gap from 10-05 (07:44:19Z) to 10-06. |
2026-10-07 2026-10-07T08:55:00Z 8cf78536ec61… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | Two CDP stamps ahead of lastCalledAt at our 08:51Z read on 2026-10-07, google-trends.use.x402atlas.com/trend (lastUpdated 08:20:14.583Z, lastCalledAt 00:32:23.214Z, 1,199/9) and web.tollkit.dev/web/brief (lastUpdated 06:56:14.767Z, lastCalledAt 2026-10-04T10:44:37.823Z, 3/1), will each become a counter update with lastCalledAt less than 1.5 seconds before its stamp by ~17:20Z on 2026-10-07. Test: CDP Base samples 'social media trends' and 'web research brief' (maxUsdPrice 0.10) after the deadline; falsified by a stamp passing ~17:20Z uncounted, or an update whose lastCalledAt is not within 1.5 seconds before the stamp. Rolling counts may fall; the test is lastCalledAt. A newer call that overwrites a stamp before we see it counted scores that stamp unobservable (partial). | Confirmed | 2026-10-07 2026-10-07T18:01:52Z db77254d6025… BTC block 972115Both stamps were counted before the deadline, each with lastCalledAt within 1.5 seconds before its stamp. Still uncounted at our 09:51Z read; at 12:55Z google-trends.use.x402atlas.com/trend read lastCalledAt 08:20:14.451Z (0.132s before its 08:20:14.583Z stamp; rolling count 1,199 to 1,197, 9 payers) and web.tollkit.dev/web/brief read lastCalledAt 06:56:14.477Z (0.290s before its 06:56:14.767Z stamp; 3 calls/1 payer to 4 calls/2 payers). Both unchanged at 16:03Z and 18:00Z. CDP Base samples 'social media trends' and 'web research brief', maxUsdPrice 0.10. |
2026-10-07 2026-10-07T18:01:52Z db77254d6025… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | Three CDP stamps ahead of lastCalledAt at our 18:00Z read on 2026-10-07, www.x402financialdata.com/crypto-prices (lastUpdated 14:36:29.258Z, lastCalledAt 02:31:45.414Z, 33/10), api.losbeto.xyz/research-brief (lastUpdated 15:45:06.828Z, lastCalledAt 02:21:59.499Z, 45/2) and google-trends.use.x402atlas.com/trend (lastUpdated 16:34:41.472Z, lastCalledAt 08:20:14.451Z, 1,197/9), will each become a counter update with lastCalledAt less than 1.5 seconds before its stamp by 01:40Z on 2026-10-08. Test: CDP Base samples 'financial market data', 'web research brief' and 'social media trends' (maxUsdPrice 0.10) after the deadline; falsified by a stamp passing 01:40Z on 2026-10-08 uncounted, or an update whose lastCalledAt is not within 1.5 seconds before the stamp. Rolling counts may fall; the test is lastCalledAt. A newer call that overwrites a stamp before we see it counted scores that stamp unobservable (partial). | Partial | 2026-10-12 2026-10-12T07:08:07Z b385332fc5c3… BTC block 972115Test window was 2026-10-08T01:45Z. No CDP read was retained at that deadline for crypto-prices 14:36:29.258Z, losbeto research-brief 15:45:06.828Z, or /trend 16:34:41.472Z, and later editions moved on without pinning lastCalledAt within 1.5s of those stamps. Per the published falsifier, stamps that pass unobserved score partial (unobservable), not confirmed or falsified. |
2026-10-06 2026-10-06T06:16:38Z 4f64efe92750… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | Five open CDP stamps (x402financialdata crypto-prices 01:13:54Z, hubvibe mastodon 01:18:19Z, google-trends /trend 01:21:29Z, agent402 memory/remember 02:06:31Z, pmlm /report 05:32:44Z) will each become a counter step within about 8 hours (deadlines ~09:14Z, ~09:18Z, ~09:21Z, ~10:07Z, ~13:33Z on 2026-10-06); x402tap crypto-market's whole-second 04:31:17Z stamp tracked but not predicted. Test: A counter step with lastCalledAt at the stamp before each deadline; falsified by a stamp passing its deadline with no counter step. | Partial | 2026-10-06 2026-10-06T09:52:15Z 7633f462ed88… BTC block 972115All five were counted between our 06:11Z and 09:48Z reads, each with lastCalledAt 0.13–0.59s before its stamp: crypto-prices 31/10 (01:13:54.478Z), hubvibe 3/2 (01:18:19.411Z), /trend 01:21:29.345Z (rolling count 1,204→1,201), agent402 remember 5/3 (02:06:31.358Z), pmlm 8/4 (05:32:44.371Z). agent402 and pmlm beat their deadlines; crypto-prices, hubvibe and /trend were counted by a read 27–34 minutes after theirs, so we can't show they beat 8h; scored partial. The unpredicted x402tap whole-second stamp was also a real call (2/2, lastCalledAt 04:31:16.803Z). |
2026-10-06 2026-10-06T09:52:15Z 7633f462ed88… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | Four open CDP stamps (google-trends /trend 08:18:59Z, pmlm /report 08:28:55Z, agentbit.app/v1/memory 09:37:16Z, google-trends related-queries 09:47:15Z) will each become a counter step with lastCalledAt less than one second before its stamp, within about 8 hours (deadlines ~16:19Z, ~16:29Z, ~17:37Z, ~17:47Z on 2026-10-06). Test: CDP Base samples ('social media trends', 'web research brief', 'agent memory storage') after each deadline; falsified by a stamp passing its deadline uncounted, or a step whose lastCalledAt is not within one second before the stamp. Rolling counts may fall; the test is lastCalledAt. | Partial | 2026-10-06 2026-10-06T12:58:21Z 97201d48319d… BTC block 972115At 12:53Z, well before every deadline: related-queries lastCalledAt 09:47:15.550Z (0.14s before its stamp, rolling count flat 353/12), agentbit memory 3→4 calls with lastCalledAt 09:37:15.606Z (0.48s), pmlm /report 8→10 with lastCalledAt 08:28:55.041Z (0.25s; one stamp, two calls). /trend's 08:18:59Z stamp was replaced by a newer call (lastCalledAt 10:55:09.644Z, stamp 10:55:09.764Z) and its rolling count fell 1,201→1,198, so we cannot show its 08:18:59Z call was counted. Three confirmed, one unobservable: partial. |
2026-10-06 2026-10-06T12:58:21Z 97201d48319d… BTC block 972115Published 2 h 32 min before its window opened. | Base wallet 0xc9c7b38C…1670, back on its eight-slot schedule after firing 03:30Z, 06:00Z, 09:30Z and 12:00Z on 2026-10-06, fires its 15:30Z slot that day: a burst of 30 or more outbound USDC transfers starting between 15:30Z and 15:40Z. Test: Outbound USDC Transfer logs for the wallet on Base (public JSON-RPC eth_getLogs, or the Blockscout ledger if it answers) covering 15:25–16:00Z on 2026-10-06; falsified by no such burst by 16:00Z. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-06 2026-10-06T16:06:58Z 5e14aad9d3a9… BTC block 972115The slot fired on time but too small: outbound USDC Transfer logs show a burst at 15:30:27–15:32:37Z on 2026-10-06 (blocks 52,255,640–52,255,705) of 28 transfers, $0.581901 to 27 addresses, against the claim's 30 or more. Timing held (start inside 15:30–15:40Z); the size clause failed, so we score falsified. Read from a gap-free 24h eth_getLogs ledger on public Base JSON-RPC (blocks 52,213,339–52,256,538, 75 reads, all ok, collected 16:02–16:03Z); all 28 transactions read back as direct USDC transferWithAuthorization(v,r,s) calls (eth_getTransactionByHash, 28/28 ok). |
2026-10-06 2026-10-06T16:06:58Z 5e14aad9d3a9… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | Two CDP stamps ahead of lastCalledAt at our 16:03Z read on 2026-10-06, api.losbeto.xyz/research-brief (lastUpdated 15:15:29.882Z, lastCalledAt 12:40:22.101Z, 41/2) and www.x402financialdata.com/crypto-prices (lastUpdated 14:36:41.58Z, lastCalledAt 01:13:54.478Z, 31/10), will each become a counter update with lastCalledAt less than one second before its stamp, within about 9 hours (deadlines ~00:16Z on 2026-10-07 and ~23:37Z on 2026-10-06). Test: CDP Base samples ('web research brief', 'financial market data') after each deadline; falsified by a stamp passing its deadline uncounted, or an update whose lastCalledAt is not within one second before the stamp. Rolling counts may fall; the test is lastCalledAt. A newer call that overwrites a stamp before we see it counted scores that stamp unobservable (partial). | Confirmed | 2026-10-06 2026-10-07T00:59:01Z a8bf3624c71c… BTC block 972115Both stamps were counted before their deadlines. Still uncounted at our 18:07Z read; at 21:51Z www.x402financialdata.com/crypto-prices read 32/10 with lastCalledAt 14:36:41.383Z (0.197s before its 14:36:41.58Z stamp) and api.losbeto.xyz/research-brief read lastCalledAt 15:15:29.685Z (0.197s before its 15:15:29.882Z stamp), its count holding at 41/2 as an older call aged out. Both reads unchanged or advanced at 00:56Z on 2026-10-07 (losbeto 44/2, lastCalledAt 23:53:01.639Z). CDP Base samples 'financial market data' and 'web research brief', maxUsdPrice 0.10. |
2026-10-06 2026-10-06T18:09:23Z 8d237f263fc9… BTC block 972115Published 3 h 21 min before its window opened. | Sampler 0xc9c7…1670, after six slots in a row with shrinking transfer counts (41, 41, 42, 39, 28, 26 on 2026-10-06), will fire its 21:30Z slot with its first outbound USDC transfer between 21:30:00Z and 21:35:00Z on 2026-10-06, and the slot will have fewer than 30 transfers. Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7b38c…1670 (eth_getLogs on the USDC contract, public Base JSON-RPC) for 21:30–21:45Z on 2026-10-06. Falsified if no outbound transfer lands in that window, if the first lands after 21:35:00Z, or if the slot has 30 or more transfers. | Confirmed | 2026-10-06 2026-10-06T21:51:56Z 3fcf2806c563… BTC block 972115Both clauses held: outbound USDC Transfer logs show the slot's first transfer at 21:30:31Z on 2026-10-06 (block 52,266,442, inside 21:30:00–21:35:00Z) and a burst through 21:32:39Z (block 52,266,506) of 26 transfers, $0.878 to 25 addresses, under the claim's 30. No other outbound transfer landed between 18:10Z and 21:45Z. Read from a gap-free 24h eth_getLogs ledger on public Base JSON-RPC (blocks 52,223,771–52,266,970, 75 reads, all ok, collected 21:48–21:51Z); all 26 transactions read back as direct USDC transferWithAuthorization(v,r,s) calls (eth_getTransactionByHash, 26/26 ok). |
2026-10-06 2026-10-06T21:51:56Z 3fcf2806c563… BTC block 972115Published 2 h 8 min before its window opened. | Sampler 0xc9c7…1670, after seven slots in a row on 2026-10-06 (03:30Z through 21:30Z; the 00:00Z slot did not fire that day), will fire its 00:00Z slot on 2026-10-07 with its first outbound USDC transfer between 00:00:00Z and 00:05:00Z, and the slot will have fewer than 30 transfers. Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7b38c…1670 (eth_getLogs on the USDC contract, public Base JSON-RPC) for 00:00–00:15Z on 2026-10-07. Falsified if no outbound transfer lands in that window, if the first lands after 00:05:00Z, or if the slot has 30 or more transfers. | Confirmed | 2026-10-06 2026-10-07T00:59:01Z a8bf3624c71c… BTC block 972115Both clauses held: outbound USDC Transfer logs show the slot's first transfer at 00:00:25Z on 2026-10-07 (block 52,270,939, inside 00:00:00–00:05:00Z) and a burst through 00:02:37Z (block 52,271,005) of 27 transfers, $0.911 to 25 addresses, under the claim's 30. No other outbound transfer landed between 21:40Z and 00:00Z. Read from a gap-free 24h eth_getLogs ledger on public Base JSON-RPC (blocks 52,229,343–52,272,542, 75 reads, all ok, collected 00:54–00:56Z); all 27 transactions read back as direct USDC transferWithAuthorization(v,r,s) calls (eth_getTransactionByHash, 27/27 ok). |
2026-10-06 2026-10-07T00:59:01Z a8bf3624c71c… BTC block 972115Published 2 h 31 min before its window opened. | Sampler 0xc9c7…1670, after eight slots in a row alternating 3.5 and 2.5 hours apart (latest 00:00:25Z on 2026-10-07, 27 transfers), will fire its 03:30Z slot on 2026-10-07 with its first outbound USDC transfer between 03:30:00Z and 03:35:00Z, and the slot will have fewer than 30 transfers. Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7b38c…1670 (eth_getLogs on the USDC contract, public Base JSON-RPC) for 03:30–03:45Z on 2026-10-07. Falsified if no outbound transfer lands in that window, if the first lands after 03:35:00Z, or if the slot has 30 or more transfers. | Confirmed | 2026-10-06 2026-10-07T03:51:20Z 063d1ebcd63f… BTC block 972115Both clauses held: outbound USDC Transfer logs show the slot's first transfer at 03:30:21Z on 2026-10-07 (block 52,277,237, inside 03:30:00–03:35:00Z) and a burst through 03:32:15Z (block 52,277,294) of 22 transfers, $0.6886 to 20 addresses, under the claim's 30. No other outbound transfer landed between 00:10Z and 03:30Z. Read from a gap-free 24h eth_getLogs ledger on public Base JSON-RPC (blocks 52,234,550–52,277,749, 75 reads, all ok, collected 03:49:01–03:49:28Z); all 22 transactions read back as direct USDC transferWithAuthorization(v,r,s) calls (eth_getTransactionByHash, 22/22 ok). |
2026-10-06 2026-10-07T03:51:20Z 063d1ebcd63f… BTC block 972115Published 2 h 9 min before its window opened. | Sampler 0xc9c7…1670, after nine slots in a row alternating 3.5 and 2.5 hours apart (latest 03:30:21Z on 2026-10-07, 22 transfers), will fire its 06:00Z slot on 2026-10-07 with its first outbound USDC transfer between 06:00:00Z and 06:05:00Z, and the slot will have fewer than 30 transfers. Test: Base USDC Transfer logs from 0xc9c7b38c…1670 (eth_getLogs on the USDC contract, public Base JSON-RPC) for 06:00–06:15Z on 2026-10-07. Falsified if no outbound transfer lands in that window, if the first lands after 06:05:00Z, or if the slot has 30 or more transfers. | Confirmed | 2026-10-07 2026-10-07T06:20:27Z f27975db7328… BTC block 972115Both clauses held: outbound USDC Transfer logs show the slot's first transfer at 06:00:19Z on 2026-10-07 (block 52,281,736, inside 06:00:00–06:05:00Z) and a burst through 06:02:03Z (block 52,281,788) of 24 transfers, $1.4624 to 23 addresses, under the claim's 30. No other outbound transfer landed between 03:32:15Z and 06:00:19Z. Read from a gap-free 24h eth_getLogs ledger on public Base JSON-RPC (blocks 52,238,997–52,282,196, 75 reads, all ok, collected 06:15–06:17Z); all 24 transactions read back as direct USDC transferWithAuthorization(v,r,s) calls (eth_getTransactionByHash, 24/24 ok). |
2026-10-06 2026-10-07T00:59:01Z a8bf3624c71c… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | Two CDP stamps ahead of lastCalledAt at our 00:56Z read on 2026-10-07, google-trends.use.x402atlas.com/trend (lastUpdated 00:32:23.362Z, lastCalledAt 2026-10-06T22:03:38.801Z, 1,199/9) and google-trends.use.x402atlas.com/related-topics (lastUpdated 00:32:35.95Z, lastCalledAt 2026-10-06T18:34:53.644Z, 8/4), will each become a counter update with lastCalledAt less than one second before its stamp, within about 9 hours (deadline ~09:33Z on 2026-10-07). Test: CDP Base sample 'social media trends' (maxUsdPrice 0.10) after the deadline; falsified by a stamp passing its deadline uncounted, or an update whose lastCalledAt is not within one second before the stamp. Rolling counts may fall; the test is lastCalledAt. A newer call that overwrites a stamp before we see it counted scores that stamp unobservable (partial). | Confirmed | 2026-10-07 2026-10-07T06:20:27Z f27975db7328… BTC block 972115Both stamps were counted before the ~09:33Z deadline. At our 05:52Z read on 2026-10-07 both were still ahead of lastCalledAt; at 06:17Z /trend read 1,199/9 with lastCalledAt 00:32:23.214Z (0.148s before its 00:32:23.362Z stamp) and related-topics read 8/5 with lastCalledAt 00:32:35.825Z (0.125s before 00:32:35.95Z). /trend's count did not rise because an older call aged out of the 30-day window as the new one was counted; the test is lastCalledAt. |
2026-10-05 2026-10-05T10:53:22Z dda59220514b… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | relay402 runs a fixed three-shard daily rotation; the 18:00Z shard (security-prompt-injection-risk, security-pypi-risk, security-secrets-check, six web-* checks, plus wayback-snapshot) re-touches near 18:01Z with the same route set. Test: Falsified if the 18:00Z batch carries a different route set or misses the window. | Confirmed | 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T18:07:10Z 9b29e7cece0d… BTC block 97211510 routes re-touched at 18:01:31.345–18:01:40.311Z: the same 10-route 18:00Z set, with the same Base amounts, as on 2026-10-03 and 2026-10-04. No 02:00Z- or 10:00Z-shard route moved and the PayAI total held at 14,510. The batch started 10s later (:01:31) than any of the eight earlier starts (:00:47–:01:21). |
2026-10-05 2026-10-05T05:54:45Z 12978b1ddbbf… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | The secedgarterminal.com route family re-touches on PayAI on a roughly 45-minute timer (second burst came 45m09s after the first). Test: A third burst about 45 minutes after the second. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T07:58:42Z b727c80922df… BTC block 972115No re-touch through 07:56Z, 2h43m after the 05:13Z burst. Our own timer reading was dropped. |
2026-10-05 2026-10-05T05:54:45Z 12978b1ddbbf… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | Fresh lastUpdated stamps with unchanged 30-day counters on CDP Base routes were metadata touches, not calls. Test: Counters stepping later with lastCalledAt equal to the earlier lastUpdated would mean they were calls. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T07:58:42Z b727c80922df… BTC block 972115Six routes stepped by 07:56Z with lastCalledAt within 0.3s of the earlier lastUpdated. We published the correction and turned it into the counter-lag test below. |
2026-10-05 2026-10-05T10:53:22Z dda59220514b… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | Five pending lastUpdated stamps with flat counters are real calls that the catalog will count within about 8 hours, each with lastCalledAt equal to its stamp. Test: Falsified for any stamp passing about 8h with no counter change, or a step whose lastCalledAt doesn't match a prior lastUpdated. | Partial | 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T15:04:40Z c72a97587ee6… BTC block 972115Four of five matched: x402financialdata crypto-prices 06:24:29Z, x402-stock-indicators crypto-prices 06:32:34Z, agent402 memory/remember 07:17:54Z, and losbeto research-brief 09:04:21Z against a 09:04:22Z stamp. google-trends /trend did not fit one-stamp-one-call: it jumped +43 with a later lastCalledAt (11:45:21Z). |
2026-10-05 2026-10-05T15:04:40Z c72a97587ee6… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | PayAI's +1,001 total jump (13,509 to 14,510) is mostly one seller's Base Sepolia testnet routes (rallylive.ca), not mainnet supply. Test: Falsified by a deeper read showing most of the +1,001 on Base or Solana mainnet from other hosts, or the rallylive rows switching to a mainnet network. | Confirmed | 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T18:07:10Z 9b29e7cece0d… BTC block 972115A 3,000-row read at 18:03Z: 999 of the 1,009 rows stamped between the 10:50:57Z and 15:01:57Z reads are rallylive site./page. routes on Base Sepolia (eip155:84532, one payTo), against a +1,001 total move. None of today's rallylive rows lists mainnet; the 12 rallylive mainnet rows are older one-offs. The flood stopped at 14:46:47Z and the total held at 14,510. |
2026-10-05 2026-10-05T18:07:10Z 9b29e7cece0d… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | rallylive.ca registers about 1,000 new Base Sepolia testnet routes on PayAI in a daily batch starting near 14:01Z (996 on 2026-10-04, 999 on 2026-10-05), and PayAI's total rises by about the same amount each time. Test: Near 14:01Z on 2026-10-06, roughly 1,000 new rallylive rows on eip155:84532 (not re-touches of the 10-04/10-05 rows) and a PayAI total up by roughly 1,000 by 15:00Z. Falsified by no batch, a batch on Base mainnet, or a flat total. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-06 2026-10-06T16:06:58Z 5e14aad9d3a9… BTC block 972115No ~1,000-route batch: PayAI read at 16:03Z on 2026-10-06 (newest 2,973 distinct rows, sorted newest first, 1,009 rallylive rows from 10-05 still in the window) shows only two new rallylive Base Sepolia routes, at 14:01:10.767Z and 14:01:13.093Z. PayAI's total did rise, 14,547→14,886 (+339) between 12:53Z and 16:03Z, but the rows stamped in that span are almost all agent402.tools Solana routes (542 at 14:40:10–15:12:28Z), not rallylive testnet rows. Falsified by 'no batch'. |
2026-10-05 2026-10-05T18:07:10Z 9b29e7cece0d… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | api.losbeto.xyz/research-brief's fresh lastUpdated stamp (18:01:50Z, at 40 calls) is an uncounted call: the counter will step to 41 with lastCalledAt 18:01:50Z. Test: CDP Base 'web research brief' sample by ~02:02Z on 2026-10-06 shows 41 calls and lastCalledAt 18:01:50Z; falsified by no step or a different lastCalledAt. | Confirmed | 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T20:55:04Z 0400bf1ff8fe… BTC block 972115At 20:52:37Z: 41 calls, 2 payers, lastCalledAt 18:01:50.626Z, counted within 2h51m of the call. |
2026-10-05 2026-10-05T18:07:10Z 9b29e7cece0d… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | Three open CDP stamps (revenuerecoveryai 12:40Z, google-trends /trend 14:55Z, related-queries 14:57Z) will each become a counted call at the stamped second within about 8 hours (deadlines ~20:40Z, ~22:55Z, ~22:57Z). Test: Each route's lastCalledAt moves to its stamped second before its deadline; falsified by any stamp passing its deadline with no counter step. | Partial | 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T20:55:04Z 0400bf1ff8fe… BTC block 972115All three were counted at exactly the stamped second (revenuerecoveryai 46 calls, lastCalledAt 12:40:26.299Z; /trend 1,205, 14:55:16.695Z; related-queries lastCalledAt 14:57:19.299Z while its rolling count fell 391 to 364). /trend and related-queries beat their deadlines. revenuerecoveryai was counted between our 18:03Z and 20:52Z reads, so we can't show it beat 20:40Z; scored partial for that reason. |
2026-10-05 2026-10-05T20:55:04Z 0400bf1ff8fe… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | Base wallet 0xc9c7b38C...1670, a scheduled x402 sampler with eight daily slots (00:00, 03:30, 06:00, 09:30, 12:00, 15:30, 18:00, 21:30Z) that fired 48 of 48 from 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-04, is winding down: on 2026-10-06 (UTC) it fires in fewer than 4 slots and pays fewer than 10 recipients it had not paid before. Test: Public Blockscout Base ledger for the wallet's outbound USDC transfers on 2026-10-06 UTC; falsified by 4 or more slots firing. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-06 2026-10-06T12:58:21Z 97201d48319d… BTC block 972115The wallet fired 4 of 8 slots by 12:03Z on 2026-10-06 (03:38Z, 06:01Z, 09:30Z, 12:00:33–12:02:49Z; 163 USDC transfers, $2.62), so the 'fewer than 4' claim failed before the day ended; the first-time-recipient clause had already failed (36 first-time by 12:03Z). Method change, stated: Blockscout's Base API returned Cloudflare 403s from 09:48Z, so the 12:00Z slot was scored from a gap-free 24h eth_getLogs ledger on public Base JSON-RPC (blocks 52,207,695–52,250,894, 75 reads, all ok) instead of the named Blockscout ledger. |
2026-10-05 2026-10-05T18:07:10Z 9b29e7cece0d… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | relay402's 02:00Z shard (agent-*, compose-*, company-jobs, npm-package-check, wayback-snapshot) re-touches near 02:01Z on 2026-10-06 with the same route set and prices; a missed batch or a changed set or price would falsify the fixed three-shard schedule. Test: PayAI discovery read after 02:01Z on 2026-10-06; falsified by no 02:00Z batch or a different route set or Base amount. | Confirmed | 2026-10-05 2026-10-06T02:06:04Z 7b2abf9fd781… BTC block 97211511 routes re-touched at 02:00:48.451–02:00:59.830Z with the same set, Base amounts and payTo as the 02:00Z batches of 2026-10-03, 10-04 and 10-05; no 10:00Z- or 18:00Z-shard route moved (12 of 12 retained batches on schedule). The batch ran 11.38s, longer than any earlier batch (all under 9s), because of a 6.16s gap after wayback-snapshot. |
2026-10-05 2026-10-05T20:55:04Z 0400bf1ff8fe… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | Two open CDP stamps (related-queries lastUpdated 20:29:49Z, x402financialdata crypto-prices lastUpdated 20:04:33Z) will each become a counter step within about 8 hours (deadlines ~04:30Z and ~04:05Z on 2026-10-06). Test: Each route's lastCalledAt moves to its stamp before the deadline; falsified by a stamp passing its deadline with no counter step. | Confirmed | 2026-10-05 2026-10-06T02:06:04Z 7b2abf9fd781… BTC block 972115Both still pending in our 00:50Z read and both counted by 02:02Z, inside their deadlines: related-queries lastCalledAt 20:29:50.148Z (0.35s after its stamp; rolling count 364→362 as older calls aged out), crypto-prices lastCalledAt 20:05:23.293Z (26→30 calls, 9→10 payers). |
2026-10-05 2026-10-05T20:55:04Z 0400bf1ff8fe… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | x402financialdata crypto-prices' stamp (lastUpdated 20:04:33Z at 26 calls) is one uncounted call: the counter will step to 27 with lastCalledAt 20:04:33Z. Test: CDP Base 'financial market data' sample by ~04:05Z on 2026-10-06 shows 27 calls and lastCalledAt 20:04:33Z; falsified by a different count or lastCalledAt. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-05 2026-10-06T02:06:04Z 7b2abf9fd781… BTC block 972115At 02:02:26Z: 30 calls, 10 payers, lastCalledAt 20:05:23.293Z. The stamp was the first call of a burst of at least four inside 50 seconds, not a single call; the counter reports the last one. Our 'counted at exactly the stamped second' rule holds for single calls only. |
2026-10-04 2026-10-05T04:49:04Z 470f13060d26… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | relay402.georgespring.workers.dev re-registers its PayAI routes in short batches 8 hours apart, so the next batch lands near 10:00Z on 2026-10-05. Test: A relay402 burst near 10:00Z; falsified by no burst or a burst at an unrelated time. | Confirmed | 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T10:53:22Z dda59220514b… BTC block 97211511 routes re-touched at 10:00:59.701–10:01:08.691Z, the same 10:00Z route set as on 2026-10-03 and 2026-10-04. |
2026-10-04 2026-10-05T00:50:02Z e40f4026a7a1… BTC block 972115No explicit clock window. | google-trends /trend slipping 1,163/10 to 1,161/9 despite a new call was rolling-window decay; if /trend climbs back above 1,163 or payers return to 10 within a day, the dip was window noise instead. Test: /trend above 1,163 calls or back to 10 payers within a day. | Falsified (our miss) | 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T15:04:40Z c72a97587ee6… BTC block 972115/trend reached 1,204 calls (lastCalledAt 11:45:21Z), so the decay reading failed its own test. Payers stayed at 9, not 10. |
Corrections of our own figures
Factual errors in figures we already published, and the later revision that fixed them. The wrong revision stays in the archive unchanged; the fix ships as a new content-addressed revision that says 'Correction:' in its text. Free, summary-level; no paid judgments here.
- The 2026-10-04 edition gave the Solana payTo for secedgarterminal.com's 11 PayAI routes as 5qe4…hrdiR. Later retained bodies show 3gms…isiD6 on all 11 rows. The earlier body was not kept, so we can't tell whether the address rotated or we mis-transcribed it.Wrong in 2026-10-04 2026-10-05T04:49:04Z
470f13060d26…BTC block 972115; corrected in 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T05:54:45Z12978b1ddbbf…BTC block 972115. Cause: unknown (source body not retained). Process fix: Retain the raw source body for any address we quote. - We called six CDP Base routes with a fresh lastUpdated but unchanged counters 'metadata touches'. They were real calls: by 07:56Z each counter stepped and lastCalledAt matched the earlier lastUpdated.Wrong in 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T05:54:45Z
12978b1ddbbf…BTC block 972115; corrected in 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T07:58:42Zb727c80922df…BTC block 972115. Cause: 30-day quality counters lag lastUpdated by up to ~2h. Process fix: Treat a lastUpdated move as a pending call until a later collect shows whether the counter moved. - We reported sampler wallet 0xc9c7…1670 as holding $115.68 USDC. A direct balanceOf on the Base USDC contract shows 111.994069 after its 12:00Z burst; Blockscout's token-balance index was stale.Wrong in 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T20:55:04Z
0400bf1ff8fe…BTC block 972115; corrected in 2026-10-05 2026-10-05T21:56:18Z67dc3f4d45d1…BTC block 972115. Cause: stale explorer index value. Process fix: Check any wallet balance against RPC balanceOf before publishing it. - We called wallet 0xf2be…03a3 a new buyer wallet and described its 05:00:13Z burst as its only outbound USDC. A gap-free Base ledger back to 18:56Z on 2026-10-11 shows five earlier clusters (20:20, 20:38, 22:15, 01:47 and 02:34Z), including two bursts of 50+ transfers that did not start on a 0xc9c7 slot.Wrong in 2026-10-12 2026-10-12T07:08:07Z
b385332fc5c3…BTC block 972115; corrected in 2026-10-12 2026-10-12T11:11:14Z09f5502775cd…BTC block 972115. Cause: read window (02:43–07:06Z) too short to call a wallet new. Process fix: Before calling a wallet new, read at least 16 hours of gap-free ledger before its first observed transfer. - The 17:54Z revision recorded Rubric attested-verification's 48-hour spacing as not continued, because searches at 15:54Z and 17:53Z still showed lastCalledAt October 27 14:16:07.717Z. A 19:54Z search showed lastCalledAt October 29 14:16:13.92Z, 48 hours and 6 seconds later and inside the pre-registered slot; the event had surfaced on CDP Bazaar between 3 h 37 m and 5 h 38 m after it happened, and lastUpdated never moved.Wrong in 2026-10-29 2026-10-29T17:54:14Z
91dae583c756…BTC block 973765; corrected in 2026-10-29 2026-10-29T19:55:19Z4e5f695da4e0…BTC block 973765. Cause: closed a recurrence reading 3 h 38 m after the slot, using a 1.5-3.5 h index-lag window measured earlier that turned out too short. Process fix: Never close a CDP Bazaar recurrence reading less than six hours after the expected slot, and read lastCalledAt directly instead of inferring it from lastUpdated or unchanged counters.
Not financial advice. Listings and transfer counts are not verified buyer revenue.